I didn’t back it because it was too big a price
We’ve all been put off selections which have drifted in the market or that appear to be available at too big a price. It doesn’t make sense does it? Especially as many of them go on to win. If you are getting a better price than you expected, it could mean that you are getting a value bet!
Is there Something Wrong?
Try and work out why a selection is drifting. If you are looking at a football match, maybe there have been some injuries or team changes involving key players. If it’s a horse, maybe people think it wont act on the going or over the distance it is trying today. .
Market Forces
This is the most likely cause of a drifter. If there isn’t strong support for a selection, the bookmakers will increase the odds in an attempt to attract more money. Maybe the selection is drifting as a result of other selections in the market being well supported. Perhaps a popular tipster has touted a particular selection; maybe a popular team is all the rage with fans. If one or more selections in the market have been well backed then others will drift out as the bookies attempt to attract more money for them in an effort to balance their books.
Trust Your Analysis
Don’t be put off by a selection simply because it drifts in the market. Maybe others are responding to rumors or relying upon duff information. If nothing is wrong with your selection then trust your analysis. Those not backing it could be wrong!
When Drifters are Value
One of the best ways to find a value bet can be to go against the crowd. Support for the popular selections will see the others drift out in the market and this is where the shrewd punter can make their move, as the price available becomes value in their mind.
ValueChecker Drifters List
Check out the drifters on the right of this page to see if you think any of them are value bets. You can see both the latest odds by clicking on  and also detailed info about the price movements by using  .
You can see the best odds, average odds and how the odds have been changing over the past few hours, like as shown above. In this example "Slalom" has drifted from 2.63 to 2.88. Looking at the details you can see both Bet365, Hills and Sporting Odds opened at about 2.63 and then went out to 2.88 which was matched by several other bookies who also priced up at 2.88 at about 2pm.
Looking at the overall price trends for all runners you can see that this looks more like a market adjustment with several of the market leaders having been pushed out and most of the outsiders having been clipped.
This probably isn't a significant negative for Slalom. |
