Is ValueChecker Predicting An FA Cup Exit For Chelsea?

Birmingham take on Chelsea tonight in an FA Cup replay and whilst many speculated that AVB would lose his job should Chelsea lose this game, it was Saturday’s loss at West Brom that finally cost him his job and now Roberto Di Matteo has taken charge for this match. Will form go out the window or will it be business as usual?

The ValueChecker Value Bets suggest that it could be a bad start for Roberto Di Matteo as Birmingham have been flagged up as a strong bet in this match. Birmingham have only lost once at home in the league this season whilst Chelsea have often struggled and since the Value Bets are based on a statistical analysis of previous results it is no surprise that Birmingham have been flagged up. ValueChecker thinks that Birmingham should be more like 2.29 rather than the 5.52 on offer and that difference in odds means that this bet has been assigned a value rating of 0.33.

Another Value Bet according to ValueChecker is under 4.5 goals in this match. ValueChecker seems to be playing it a little safe by flagging this up as the odds are only 1.12 but ValueChecker thinks that it should actually be more like 1.06 and as a result that bet has been given a value rating of 0.90. It may shock a few that this fixture has only produced three goals on the last six occasions it has been played so you’d have to think under 4.5 goals is a safe shout.

It will be interesting to see what combination of forwards the new manager goes for, If Di Matteo doesn’t pick Didier Drogba it could have an adverse effect on Chelsea’s ability to score goals according to the Chelsea ValueChecker wikis. In recent seasons Drogba has not only scored many goals but has also chipped in with many assists. Last season in the Premiership Drogba scored 12 goals and also made 15 assists whilst the season before Drogba played a hand in a huge 42 goals with 29 scored himself and 13 set up for team mates. If Drogba does play he could be a good bet to score first if not teeing up his team mates.

A note of caution for Birmingham backers thrown up by the Birmingham ValueChecker wikis is the club’s away record against Premiership opposition last season. Birmingham managed just two away wins in the Premiership last season and they were against the two teams that were relegated to the Championship with them, Blackpool and West Ham. It is also worth noting they kept just three clean sheets at St Andrews in that season. There will have to be some hope that Birmingham have improved this season but we might not know about their ability against the better Premiership teams until tonight.

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